ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF (PhD) — Environmental Sciences (subject 71) and Agricultural Meteorology (subject 60) · India · National Testing Agency for ICAR
Original practice questions written to the published syllabus · not past papersHow future climate is projected and how to use projections responsibly: model hierarchy, CMIP ensembles, RCP and SSP scenarios, downscaling and bias correction, and uncertainty. Needed for impact studies, climate-risk disclosure and adaptation planning.
In the exams: GARP SCR 'Climate Models and Scenario Analysis'; PG and PhD research in agrometeorology and climate change; ICAR AICE subject 60 (climate variability)
ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF (PhD) — Agricultural Meteorology (60) and Environmental Sciences (71)
Climate variability and change, ENSO and monsoon forecasting, long-range forecasts and LPA categories, GCMs and RCMs, downscaling and bias correction for crop impact studies, and climate indices.
How our questions for ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF spread across the units of Climate Models, Scenarios & Downscaling. Difficulty: 9 easy, 19 medium, 8 hard.
| Bias correction methods | 6 | |
| Seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting | 6 | |
| Climate indices and extreme-event indices | 6 | |
| Using climate data portals and open datasets | 6 | |
| Statistical and dynamical downscaling | 5 | |
| Model hierarchy: energy-balance, GCM, ESM and regional models | 3 | |
| CMIP ensembles and model evaluation | 1 | |
| Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways | 1 | |
| Integrated assessment models and mitigation pathways | 1 | |
| Sources of uncertainty: scenario, model and internal variability | 1 |
Choose an answer, then open the working. Each explanation says why the right answer is right and why the others are not.
Why do climate models need parameterisations?
B. Sub-grid processes such as convective clouds cannot be resolved explicitly
Sub-grid processes such as convection, cloud microphysics and turbulence are represented by parameterisations in terms of resolved variables. They are not legal requirements, the large-scale flow is resolved from physical laws, and models are still evaluated against observations.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
What is AR6's best estimate of global warming in 2081–2100, relative to 1850–1900, under SSP2-4.5?
A. 2.7 °C
AR6 best estimates: SSP1-1.9 1.4 °C, SSP1-2.6 1.8 °C, SSP2-4.5 2.7 °C, SSP3-7.0 3.6 °C, SSP5-8.5 4.4 °C.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
Using linear scaling, a model's reference-period mean July maximum temperature is 28.5 °C and the observed mean is 27.0 °C. The model projects 29.4 °C for a future July. What is the corrected value?
B. 27.9 °C
Additive correction: 29.4 + (27.0 − 28.5) = 27.9 °C. 30.9 applies the bias with the wrong sign; 27.0 is the observed mean, which ignores the projected change; 29.4 is uncorrected.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
For rainfall, the reference-period observed mean is 4.2 mm day⁻¹ and the model's is 3.0 mm day⁻¹. Using multiplicative linear scaling, what is the corrected value of a future model day with 3.6 mm?
A. 5.04 mm
Corrected = 3.6 × (4.2/3.0) = 5.04 mm. Adding the difference gives 4.80 (additive scaling, which can produce negative rain on dry days); inverting the ratio gives 2.57; 3.60 is uncorrected.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
Why is precipitation usually bias-corrected multiplicatively rather than additively?
A. Multiplying keeps rain non-negative; adding a negative bias gives negative rain
A ratio correction keeps zero as zero and avoids negative values; additive correction can push dry days below zero. Rainfall is not measured in kelvin, there is no ban, and ratio scaling corrects only the mean.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
Roughly how long does deterministic predictability of day-to-day weather last before chaos destroys skill?
A. About two weeks
Lorenz's work on chaos implies deterministic skill is lost after roughly two weeks; beyond that, skill comes from slowly varying boundary conditions and is probabilistic.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
Four forecasts give probabilities of 0.8, 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 for heavy rain; the event occurred on the first and third occasions only. What is the Brier score?
D. 0.225
BS = [(0.8−1)² + (0.6−0)² + (0.3−1)² + (0.1−0)²]/4 = (0.04 + 0.36 + 0.49 + 0.01)/4 = 0.225. 0.400 uses absolute errors; 0.900 forgets to divide by 4; 0.100 is the Brier skill score against a 0.5 climatology.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
How is the Dipole Mode Index for the Indian Ocean Dipole defined?
B. West minus south-east tropical Indian Ocean SST anomaly
The DMI is the SST anomaly difference between the western and south-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Tahiti–Darwin is the Southern Oscillation Index, Niño 3.4 is ENSO, and Azores–Iceland is the NAO.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
ERA5, from ECMWF and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, provides
B. hourly global reanalysis at 31 km from 1940 onwards
ERA5 is an hourly reanalysis at ~0.25° (31 km) from 1940. CHIRPS is the 0.05° rainfall product; the other descriptions do not fit ERA5.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
Where is raw CMIP6 model output primarily distributed?
A. The Earth System Grid Federation and the Copernicus Data Store
CMIP data are served through ESGF nodes, and many variables via the Copernicus CDS. UNFCCC portals hold inventories, and statistics offices do not distribute CMIP output.
Further reading: See the manual sources: IPCC AR6 WGI/WGIII, CMIP6 design papers, ETCCDI and the documents named in the explanation
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