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ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF Probability Distributions & Sampling Distributions: practice questions

ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF - Agricultural Statistics, Computer Application, Bioinformatics (PhD admission and fellowship) · India · National Testing Agency for ICAR

Original practice questions written to the published syllabus · not past papers
10worked here, free
48written to this exam in this subject
10syllabus units

What this subject covers

Every standard distribution a statistician must recognise and derive from: discrete and continuous families, their relations and limiting forms, compound and truncated distributions, order statistics, the bivariate normal and the sampling distributions chi-square, t and F.

In the exams: AICE-JRF Ag Stat Unit 1 and Unit 2 'compound and truncated distribution, order statistics' (heavy); GATE ST distributions and order statistics (heavy); IIT JAM MS (heavy); UPSC ISS Statistics I (heavy)

What ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF asks from it

ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF Agricultural Statistics (Units 1 and 2)

Properties of standard distributions, relations among them, compound and truncated distributions, order statistics, sampling distributions and their properties; recognising the negative binomial as a Poisson-gamma mixture and the role of Cochran's theorem in ANOVA.

Where the 48 questions fall

How our questions for ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF spread across the units of Probability Distributions & Sampling Distributions. Difficulty: 7 easy, 20 medium, 21 hard.

Non-central chi-square, t and F9
Distributions of quadratic forms in normal variables (Cochran's theorem)8
Compound, mixture and truncated distributions7
Exponential family of distributions7
Bivariate normal: marginal and conditional distributions5
Discrete distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson, geometric, negative binomial, hypergeometric and multinomial3
Relations and limiting forms among distributions3
Pearsonian system and fitting of distributions to agricultural data3
Order statistics: distributions of single, joint and range2
Sampling distributions: chi-square, t and F and their properties1

10 practice questions, worked

Choose an answer, then open the working. Each explanation says why the right answer is right and why the others are not.

1 · Discrete distributions: Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson, geometric, negative binomial, hypergeometric and multinomial · hard

X and Y are independent Poisson variables with means 2 and 3. What is P(X = 2 | X + Y = 4)?

  1. 0.3750
  2. 0.4000
  3. 0.3456
  4. 0.2707
Answer and working

C. 0.3456

Given X + Y = 4, X ~ binomial(4, 2/5): P(X = 2) = C(4, 2)(0.4)²(0.6)² = 0.3456. 0.2707 is the unconditional P(X = 2); 0.3750 uses p = 1/2, ignoring the unequal means.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

2 · Compound, mixture and truncated distributions · medium

Insects per plant are Poisson with mean λ, and λ varies from plant to plant according to a gamma distribution. What is the unconditional distribution of insects per plant?

  1. Poisson with a larger mean
  2. Binomial with n equal to the gamma shape
  3. Gamma with the same shape
  4. Negative binomial
Answer and working

D. Negative binomial

Integrating e^(−λ)λˣ/x! against a gamma(k, β) density gives C(x + k − 1, x)(β/(1 + β))ᵏ(1/(1 + β))ˣ: negative binomial with r = k. The variance exceeds the mean by the variance of the mixing distribution, so it cannot be Poisson.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

3 · Compound, mixture and truncated distributions · hard

Plant height in a population is normal with mean 100 cm and standard deviation 10 cm. The taller half is selected (truncation at the mean). What is the mean height of the selected plants?

  1. 107.98 cm
  2. 110.00 cm
  3. 105.00 cm
  4. 103.99 cm
Answer and working

A. 107.98 cm

Truncated below at a = μ, α = 0: mean = μ + σφ(0)/[1 − Φ(0)] = 100 + 10 × 0.3989/0.5 = 107.98 cm (selection intensity i = 0.798). Forgetting to divide by the proportion selected gives 103.99 cm.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

4 · Order statistics: distributions of single, joint and range · medium

For a random sample of size n from a continuous distribution with CDF F and density f, which is the density of the r-th order statistic X₍ᵣ₎?

  1. n!/[(r − 1)!(n − r)!] F(x)^(n−r) [1 − F(x)]^(r−1) f(x)
  2. C(n, r) F(x)^r [1 − F(x)]^(n−r), with no factor f(x)
  3. n!/[r!(n − r)!] F(x)^r [1 − F(x)]^(n−r) f(x)
  4. n!/[(r − 1)!(n − r)!] F(x)^(r−1) [1 − F(x)]^(n−r) f(x)
Answer and working

D. n!/[(r − 1)!(n − r)!] F(x)^(r−1) [1 − F(x)]^(n−r) f(x)

r − 1 observations fall below x, one at x and n − r above: the multinomial count n!/[(r − 1)! 1! (n − r)!] times F^(r−1) f (1 − F)^(n−r). The C(n, r)Fʳ(1 − F)ⁿ⁻ʳ form is one term of the CDF sum, not a density.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

5 · Bivariate normal: marginal and conditional distributions · medium

Plant height X (cm) and grain yield Y (g) are bivariate normal with μ_X = 100, σ_X = 10, μ_Y = 50, σ_Y = 8 and ρ = 0.6. What is the mean yield of plants 110 cm tall?

  1. 57.5 g
  2. 56.0 g
  3. 58.0 g
  4. 54.8 g
Answer and working

D. 54.8 g

E(Y | X = x) = μ_Y + ρ(σ_Y/σ_X)(x − μ_X) = 50 + 0.6 × 0.8 × 10 = 54.8 g. Using σ_X/σ_Y inverts the slope and gives 57.5 g; 58.0 g assumes perfect correlation.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

6 · Non-central chi-square, t and F · medium

A one-way trial has 3 varieties with true effects −2, 0 and 2 kg, 4 replicates each and error variance 4 kg². With λ = rΣτᵢ²/σ², what is the non-centrality parameter of the treatment F-statistic?

  1. 16
  2. 2
  3. 8
  4. 4
Answer and working

C. 8

λ = 4 × (4 + 0 + 4)/4 = 8. Omitting r gives 2; dividing by σ = 2 instead of σ² gives 16; using |τ| instead of τ² gives 4.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

7 · Exponential family of distributions · hard

For a random sample from a beta(a, b) distribution with both parameters unknown, what is the natural sufficient statistic?

  1. (Σ log Xᵢ, Σ log(1 − Xᵢ))
  2. (ΣXᵢ, ΣXᵢ²)
  3. (Π Xᵢ alone)
  4. (ΣXᵢ, Σ(1 − Xᵢ))
Answer and working

A. (Σ log Xᵢ, Σ log(1 − Xᵢ))

log f = (a − 1) log x + (b − 1) log(1 − x) − log B(a, b), so T = (log x, log(1 − x)). Note ΣXᵢ and Σ(1 − Xᵢ) carry the same information and are not sufficient here. ΠXᵢ alone covers only a.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

8 · Distributions of quadratic forms in normal variables (Cochran's theorem) · medium

X ~ Nₙ(0, σ²I), A is symmetric and L is a matrix. Under what condition are the linear form LX and the quadratic form X′AX independent?

  1. trace(LA) = n
  2. AL = I
  3. L′L = A
  4. LA = 0
Answer and working

D. LA = 0

LX and X′AX are independent iff LA = 0. With L = (1/n)1′ and A = I − J/n, LA = 0, which proves the independence of X̄ and Σ(Xᵢ − X̄)² for normal samples.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

9 · Distributions of quadratic forms in normal variables (Cochran's theorem) · hard

X₁ and X₂ are iid N(0, 1). What are the distributions of (X₁ + X₂)²/2 and (X₁ − X₂)²/2, and are they independent?

  1. Their sum is χ²₂, but neither is chi-square
  2. Each is χ²₂, and they are independent
  3. Each is χ²₁, and they are independent
  4. Each is χ²₁, but they are dependent
Answer and working

C. Each is χ²₁, and they are independent

(X₁ ± X₂)/√2 are N(0, 1) and uncorrelated, hence independent under joint normality; their squares are independent χ²₁. In matrix terms A = J/2 and B = I − J/2 are idempotent of rank 1 with AB = 0, and the ranks add to 2.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

10 · Distributions of quadratic forms in normal variables (Cochran's theorem) · hard

X ~ Nₙ(μ, I) and A is symmetric idempotent of rank r. What is the distribution of X′AX?

  1. Normal with mean μ′Aμ and variance 2r
  2. Central chi-square with r df, whatever μ
  3. Non-central chi-square with n df and non-centrality μ′μ
  4. Non-central chi-square with r df and non-centrality μ′Aμ
Answer and working

D. Non-central chi-square with r df and non-centrality μ′Aμ

Write A = PP′ with P′P = I_r; then P′X ~ N_r(P′μ, I) and X′AX = ‖P′X‖² is non-central χ²_r with λ = μ′PP′μ = μ′Aμ. It is central only when Aμ = 0.

Further reading: Rohatgi and Saleh, An Introduction to Probability and Statistics; Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan, Continuous Univariate Distributions; Johnson, Kemp and Kotz, Univariate Discrete Distributions

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