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ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF Agri Risk Management & Insurance: practice questions

ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF (PhD admission and fellowship) · India · National Testing Agency for ICAR

Original practice questions written to the published syllabus · not past papers
10worked here, free
50written to this exam in this subject
9syllabus units

What this subject covers

The risks farmers and agribusinesses face and the tools to manage them: insurance, hedging and sound credit policy.

In the exams: agricultural master's entrance examinations, crop insurance (heavy); agricultural economics PhD entrance and fellowship examinations, risk and insurance (heavy); agricultural field officer recruitment in banking (heavy); agricultural development bank officer recruitment (present)

Where the 50 questions fall

How our questions for ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF spread across the units of Agri Risk Management & Insurance. Difficulty: 6 easy, 30 medium, 14 hard.

Types of risk: production, price, institutional, financial and personal11
Weather-index insurance8
Risk diffusion strategies7
History of crop insurance6
Yield-index insurance5
Hedging with futures and options5
Publicly supported area-yield and weather-index crop insurance3
Credit risk in bank lending3
Livestock insurance2

10 practice questions, worked

Choose an answer, then open the working. Each explanation says why the right answer is right and why the others are not.

1 · Types of risk: production, price, institutional, financial and personal · easy

Which source of risk rises directly with a farm's debt-to-equity ratio?

  1. Production risk
  2. Institutional risk
  3. Financial risk
  4. Personal or health risk
Answer and working

C. Financial risk

Financial risk arises from the use of borrowed capital: fixed interest and repayment obligations magnify the effect of any fall in income on the owner's equity. Production risk comes from weather and pests and does not depend on how the farm is financed.

2 · Types of risk: production, price, institutional, financial and personal · hard

For the payoff matrix Paddy: 30, 12, 5; Maize: 22, 16, 8; Sorghum: 15, 13, 11 (thousand currency units), a farmer with a Hurwicz coefficient of optimism of 0.6 would choose:

  1. Maize
  2. Sorghum
  3. Maize and Sorghum equally
  4. Paddy
Answer and working

D. Paddy

Hurwicz value = alpha x best + (1 - alpha) x worst. Paddy: 0.6 x 30 + 0.4 x 5 = 20; Maize: 0.6 x 22 + 0.4 x 8 = 16.4; Sorghum: 0.6 x 15 + 0.4 x 11 = 13.4. Paddy is highest. Note that the pessimistic maximin rule picks Sorghum on this same matrix; with alpha = 0.6 the farmer leans toward the best outcomes.

3 · History of crop insurance · medium

In the US federal crop insurance programme, Revenue Protection differs from Yield Protection in that it:

  1. Covers only prevented planting
  2. Guarantees revenue, valuing the guarantee at the higher of the projected and harvest price
  3. Pays out on county yields rather than farm yields
  4. Is free to farmers at every coverage level
Answer and working

B. Guarantees revenue, valuing the guarantee at the higher of the projected and harvest price

Revenue Protection insures yield times price, with the guarantee raised if the harvest price exceeds the projected price, so it covers both yield and price falls. Yield Protection insures yield only at the projected price; area plans use county yields.

4 · History of crop insurance · medium

Area-yield crop insurance was first proposed by Halcrow (1949) and later re-examined by Miranda (1991), who showed that it:

  1. Always gives better protection than individual insurance for every farmer in the unit, whatever the correlation between farm and area yields
  2. Can protect farmers about as well as individual cover when their yields track the area yield, without moral hazard or adverse selection
  3. Is useful only for livestock
  4. Typically requires each farmer's own yield to be measured every season
Answer and working

B. Can protect farmers about as well as individual cover when their yields track the area yield, without moral hazard or adverse selection

Miranda's analysis showed that the effectiveness of area-yield cover depends on the correlation (the 'beta') between a farm's yield and the area yield. Farms poorly correlated with the area are left with basis risk, so it is not always better. Area products specifically avoid measuring individual yields.

5 · Yield-index insurance · hard

For an area-yield product, the insurer estimates that in 70% of years there is no claim, in 20% of years the claim is 25% of sum insured and in 10% of years it is 50%. Ignoring loading, what is the actuarially fair premium rate?

  1. 37.5% of sum insured
  2. 30% of sum insured
  3. 10% of sum insured
  4. 5% of sum insured
Answer and working

C. 10% of sum insured

Fair rate = expected indemnity as a share of sum insured = 0.7 x 0 + 0.2 x 0.25 + 0.1 x 0.50 = 0.1, i.e. 10%. On a sum insured of 50,000 currency units, that is 5,000. The 30% option is the probability of any claim, not the expected loss; 37.5% is the average of the two claim sizes ignoring probabilities.

6 · Yield-index insurance · hard

Which farmer gains least protection from an area-yield index product?

  1. One whose yields move closely with the unit's average yield
  2. One whose yields are weakly correlated with the unit's average yield
  3. One who is risk averse
  4. One who borrows from a bank
Answer and working

B. One whose yields are weakly correlated with the unit's average yield

The value of an area-yield contract to a farmer depends on how closely his yield tracks the area yield. A weakly correlated farm often suffers losses the index does not register, which is high basis risk. Risk aversion increases, rather than decreases, the value of any effective cover.

7 · Weather-index insurance · medium

Farmers sowed three weeks late because of a delayed monsoon onset. The index measured rainfall in fixed calendar windows, so the dry spell at the crop's flowering stage fell in a window with a lenient trigger. The resulting mismatch is best called:

  1. Spatial basis risk
  2. Temporal basis risk
  3. Adverse selection
  4. Covariate risk
Answer and working

B. Temporal basis risk

The index measured the right place but the wrong period relative to the crop's sensitive stage, which is temporal basis risk. Some designs reduce it with phases that start from a sowing trigger (dynamic start) rather than fixed dates.

8 · Livestock insurance · medium

Why is individual indemnity livestock insurance poorly suited to nomadic pastoral herds?

  1. Pastoral animals never die of drought
  2. Pastoralists are risk neutral
  3. Livestock deaths are not correlated with drought, so no insurer can build a diversified pool of such herds
  4. Checking the identity and cause of death of animals on remote rangeland is costly and open to fraud
Answer and working

D. Checking the identity and cause of death of animals on remote rangeland is costly and open to fraud

High verification costs and moral hazard make indemnity cover unworkable for extensive herds, which is why index products based on area mortality or NDVI were developed. Drought mortality is strongly covariate, not uncorrelated.

9 · Hedging with futures and options · medium

Why do farmers commonly hedge only part of their expected crop before harvest?

  1. Exchanges forbid hedging more than half a crop
  2. Futures prices never move
  3. Yield is uncertain, so a full hedge risks leaving them over-hedged and losing in a short-crop year
  4. Hedging removes basis risk only when half the crop is hedged, so any larger hedge adds basis risk
Answer and working

C. Yield is uncertain, so a full hedge risks leaving them over-hedged and losing in a short-crop year

Yield and price are often negatively correlated regionally. After a drought the farmer has less grain to sell while the futures position loses as prices rise. Partial hedging, or combining revenue insurance with hedging, limits this quantity risk.

10 · Hedging with futures and options · medium

Who normally supervises commodity futures and options markets?

  1. The central bank's farm credit department, which also sets crop loan rates
  2. A national market regulator, such as the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
  3. The national crop insurance company
  4. The farmers' cooperative federation
Answer and working

B. A national market regulator, such as the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Exchange-traded derivatives are overseen by securities or commodity regulators (the CFTC in the United States; in India the securities regulator absorbed the commodity regulator in 2015). Credit, insurance and cooperative bodies have other roles.

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Agri Risk Management & InsuranceThe full study manual, free ICAR AICE-JRF/SRFFormat, sections and how it has changed

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