ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF (PhD admission and fellowship) · India · National Testing Agency for ICAR
Original practice questions written to the published syllabus · not past papersThe risks farmers and agribusinesses face and the tools to manage them: insurance, hedging and sound credit policy.
In the exams: agricultural master's entrance examinations, crop insurance (heavy); agricultural economics PhD entrance and fellowship examinations, risk and insurance (heavy); agricultural field officer recruitment in banking (heavy); agricultural development bank officer recruitment (present)
How our questions for ICAR AICE-JRF/SRF spread across the units of Agri Risk Management & Insurance. Difficulty: 6 easy, 30 medium, 14 hard.
| Types of risk: production, price, institutional, financial and personal | 11 | |
| Weather-index insurance | 8 | |
| Risk diffusion strategies | 7 | |
| History of crop insurance | 6 | |
| Yield-index insurance | 5 | |
| Hedging with futures and options | 5 | |
| Publicly supported area-yield and weather-index crop insurance | 3 | |
| Credit risk in bank lending | 3 | |
| Livestock insurance | 2 |
Choose an answer, then open the working. Each explanation says why the right answer is right and why the others are not.
Which source of risk rises directly with a farm's debt-to-equity ratio?
C. Financial risk
Financial risk arises from the use of borrowed capital: fixed interest and repayment obligations magnify the effect of any fall in income on the owner's equity. Production risk comes from weather and pests and does not depend on how the farm is financed.
For the payoff matrix Paddy: 30, 12, 5; Maize: 22, 16, 8; Sorghum: 15, 13, 11 (thousand currency units), a farmer with a Hurwicz coefficient of optimism of 0.6 would choose:
D. Paddy
Hurwicz value = alpha x best + (1 - alpha) x worst. Paddy: 0.6 x 30 + 0.4 x 5 = 20; Maize: 0.6 x 22 + 0.4 x 8 = 16.4; Sorghum: 0.6 x 15 + 0.4 x 11 = 13.4. Paddy is highest. Note that the pessimistic maximin rule picks Sorghum on this same matrix; with alpha = 0.6 the farmer leans toward the best outcomes.
In the US federal crop insurance programme, Revenue Protection differs from Yield Protection in that it:
B. Guarantees revenue, valuing the guarantee at the higher of the projected and harvest price
Revenue Protection insures yield times price, with the guarantee raised if the harvest price exceeds the projected price, so it covers both yield and price falls. Yield Protection insures yield only at the projected price; area plans use county yields.
Area-yield crop insurance was first proposed by Halcrow (1949) and later re-examined by Miranda (1991), who showed that it:
B. Can protect farmers about as well as individual cover when their yields track the area yield, without moral hazard or adverse selection
Miranda's analysis showed that the effectiveness of area-yield cover depends on the correlation (the 'beta') between a farm's yield and the area yield. Farms poorly correlated with the area are left with basis risk, so it is not always better. Area products specifically avoid measuring individual yields.
For an area-yield product, the insurer estimates that in 70% of years there is no claim, in 20% of years the claim is 25% of sum insured and in 10% of years it is 50%. Ignoring loading, what is the actuarially fair premium rate?
C. 10% of sum insured
Fair rate = expected indemnity as a share of sum insured = 0.7 x 0 + 0.2 x 0.25 + 0.1 x 0.50 = 0.1, i.e. 10%. On a sum insured of 50,000 currency units, that is 5,000. The 30% option is the probability of any claim, not the expected loss; 37.5% is the average of the two claim sizes ignoring probabilities.
Which farmer gains least protection from an area-yield index product?
B. One whose yields are weakly correlated with the unit's average yield
The value of an area-yield contract to a farmer depends on how closely his yield tracks the area yield. A weakly correlated farm often suffers losses the index does not register, which is high basis risk. Risk aversion increases, rather than decreases, the value of any effective cover.
Farmers sowed three weeks late because of a delayed monsoon onset. The index measured rainfall in fixed calendar windows, so the dry spell at the crop's flowering stage fell in a window with a lenient trigger. The resulting mismatch is best called:
B. Temporal basis risk
The index measured the right place but the wrong period relative to the crop's sensitive stage, which is temporal basis risk. Some designs reduce it with phases that start from a sowing trigger (dynamic start) rather than fixed dates.
Why is individual indemnity livestock insurance poorly suited to nomadic pastoral herds?
D. Checking the identity and cause of death of animals on remote rangeland is costly and open to fraud
High verification costs and moral hazard make indemnity cover unworkable for extensive herds, which is why index products based on area mortality or NDVI were developed. Drought mortality is strongly covariate, not uncorrelated.
Why do farmers commonly hedge only part of their expected crop before harvest?
C. Yield is uncertain, so a full hedge risks leaving them over-hedged and losing in a short-crop year
Yield and price are often negatively correlated regionally. After a drought the farmer has less grain to sell while the futures position loses as prices rise. Partial hedging, or combining revenue insurance with hedging, limits this quantity risk.
Who normally supervises commodity futures and options markets?
B. A national market regulator, such as the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Exchange-traded derivatives are overseen by securities or commodity regulators (the CFTC in the United States; in India the securities regulator absorbed the commodity regulator in 2015). Credit, insurance and cooperative bodies have other roles.
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